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dcbqqhqhyptzДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 11:52 | Сообщение # 2956
Группа: Гости





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qiglvfxnqmirДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 11:58 | Сообщение # 2957
Группа: Гости





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josiszpnbnwbДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 12:17 | Сообщение # 2958
Группа: Гости





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swnoipzcoДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 12:19 | Сообщение # 2959
Группа: Гости





@@@
There鈥檚 been a bit of a firestorm in recent days regarding CAPE, or Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, at least in the amusing world of financial social media. It seems a bit silly that there would be such a squabble over a statistic since, well 鈥?it鈥檚 a statistic. As they say, statistics don鈥檛 lie, people do. While we鈥檙e not suggesting that folks are lying about the CAPE, it certainly appears that one鈥檚 general market view significantly colors their interpretation of the metric. For those unfamiliar, CAPE is a measure of price to the average earnings over the past 10 years. It was developed by Yale Professor Robert Shiller and, for many, it is a preferred metric versus using simply the current earnings since it smooths out major, temporary dislocations that can skew the ratio. This is a reasonable exercise as, for example, the financial crisis all but erased earnings for a brief period and greatly distorted price/earnings ratios at the time. The issue at the core of the recent firestorm is whether or not CAPE is currently expensive and/or a negative influence on the market at the http://www.fwpcoa.org/icon/Cheap-True-Religion-Jeans-Order-Jeans-Online-Jeans-Uk-Mens-Jeans-Outlet.html - True Religion Jeans Uk moment. Based on historical precedence, the conclusions are pretty straightforward: CAPE is unquestionably expensive now, and It is not an immediate death knell for the market. At a current level of 26.18, CAPE is currently in the 92nd percentile of all monthly readings since 1900. Regarding point #2 above, the market has not necessarily rolled over immediately upon attaining such lofty valuations (although it did in 1929). In the late 1990鈥檚, the market continued higher for several years culminating in the all-time high CAPE reading (and every other valuation metric) at the height of the dotcom bubble in 2000. The median 1-year return following similar CAPE reading (between the 90th and 94th percentile) is actually +6.8%, not far off of the +8.4% for all years. However, when looking out 5 years we see that this is not the ideal time to invest. The median 5-year return following readings at this level is -6.6% (-1.3% annualized). One of the arguments that current CAPE readings be dismissed, or at least asterisked, is that by using 10-year average earnings, the nearly nil earnings at the height of the financial crisis are included in the metric. Obviously, that has the effect of raising the CAPE reading. That is a reasonable argument, and one that is easily remedied: use a different CAPE. That is, use a different duration than 10 years to average earnings. There is http://www.fwpcoa.org/icon/Cheap-True-Religion-Jeans-Mens-Shirts-Wholesale-China-Kids-Jeans-Sale.html - True Religion Wholesale China no law that says 10 has to be the look back period. Like so many financial and market measures, it has simply become the accepted period since Mr. Shiller proposed it. We have no problem with it but we have no problem revising it either for the sake of this discussion or analysis in general. So without data-mining, let鈥檚 pick 5 years in which to average earnings. We are picking 5 for a few reasons: A) it is half of 10, B) it is a common standard and most importantly C) it removes the worst of the earnings readings from the 1st half of 2009 from the measurement. Here鈥檚 how a 5-year CAPE ratio looks since 1900. At 24.03, the 5-year CAPE is slightly lower than the 10-year CAPE on an absolute basis and on a percentile basis. Historically, it rings in at the 88th percentile. So, perhaps valuations are a little less rich than those implied by the standard CAPE measure. Unfortunately, the forward returns are still not much to speak of. The median 1-year return in the S&P 500 following similar readings (between the 85th and 89th percentile) is in line with the overall average at +7.4%. However, the median 5-year return is just +0.5% (0.1% annualized). So what can we conclude? http://www.styledepth.com/test.php?sale=True-Religion-Boys-Jeans - All Black True Religion Jeans First, CAPE valuations are very expensive (92nd percentile) by historical measures. By shortening the CAPE鈥檚 look back period on earnings to just 5 years, we remove the worst portion of the earnings from the financial crisis. This only slightly reduces the measure of valuation, however, as the 5-year CAPE is still at the 88th percentile, historically. Both readings do not necessarrily spell the end of the cyclical bull market as the 1-year returns following such years have more or less been in line with the average. However, on a longer-term basis, periods coinciding with such valuations have historically not been a good time to invest. Something tells me we aren鈥檛 going to change a whole lot of minds on either side of the CAPE fence.
 
rvnlpvdvweeqДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 12:40 | Сообщение # 2960
Группа: Гости





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kyuenejugqvjДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 12:56 | Сообщение # 2961
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eefhcrtnkqbwДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 13:03 | Сообщение # 2962
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StephenFenДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 13:20 | Сообщение # 2963
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wvxxqwyaiqnxДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 14:34 | Сообщение # 2964
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fzljemnjtiquДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 14:50 | Сообщение # 2965
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kopetpdwypДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 14:55 | Сообщение # 2966
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Good beauty routines can be enjoyable; however, some are simply frustrating. Now you can try some new beauty techniques with confidence with the help of these tips.

Place some moisturizer in a small sample jar or in an empty lip gloss container. These containers can be carried in your purse or travel bag. A tiny drop of moisturizer to the face when your skin starts feeling dry is all you need.

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As part of your beauty regimen, have at least one glass of milk everyday. There is scientific proof that it helps bones and organs, including your skin. It is full of protein and helps to build your muscle mass. Milk can also help to maintain your weight at a reasonable level. Milk can be a great tool in your beauty or fitness regimen.

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The concept of beauty is made up of several different factors that must all join together. Skin care goes a very long way in looking beautiful. The drastic impact that skin care has in one's overall appearance is often overlooked by many people, but especially men.

As mentioned earlier, beauty can be fun for everyone. It takes some know how to educate yourself, but it is not necessary to have an expert level of knowledge to get the look you want. Remember these tips, and have fun with them!
 
vgmyvmwtcplxДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 15:09 | Сообщение # 2967
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StephenFenДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 16:11 | Сообщение # 2968
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sxadibojjkmtДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 17:22 | Сообщение # 2969
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StephenFenДата: Среда, 10.09.2014, 18:18 | Сообщение # 2970
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